Busted: Bankers and The Global Economy

August 3, 2008

False Confidence and Tough Times

You’ve probably heard the bad news and are likely to hear more based on underground information that isn’t public yet. Public information isn’t rosy either as otherwise tough line economists are finally admitting a “shallow recession”.

You’ve probably heard that the federal government admitted that 51,000 jobs vanished last month, with just over 1/2 million this year according to statistics. Growth has been reported as slow, but numbers have just been revised for an economic contraction in the last three months of 2007. The popular line is growing that data suggests a recession began late last year. That is really old news. The good news behind the bad news is that once you admit you have a problem, you stop trying to cover up for the problem that you don’t have. In fact, by simply admitting the truth collectively or individually, it is possible to look upward or at least past your situation. That is exactly what the economy really needs, a release from national credit addiction. Business and government need it more than consumers do.

Investment bankers like Goldman Sachs say the entire global economy is slowing, which makes any trade improvement opportunities unsustainable at best for the U.S. economy. Because of that many new opportunities in the U.S. economy are being cut off. Business is also worrying about Christmas sales and is reacting by importing less goods. Looking at the bright side, even if many Americans don’t have a traditional Christmas, we still have each other. The world isn’t over because of a disappointing holiday season except for unwise speculators.

For those businesses that must have an increase in sales, new ways to entice consumers must be discovered to garner what business there is. Otherwise, many businesses will be cutting back and closing stores. This move is expected before Christmas as business continues to contract, but many retailers will try to weather the storm. Panic may ensue, but rest assured that many businesses have simply reaped what they have sown. Let’s face the facts that Americans cannot continue to live on credits cards to finance cheap imported goods to make the business world ever larger profit margins. Inflation also continues to cut into margins on both sides for business. The beast of inflation is no longer reigned in.

Many Americans have decided to get down to brass tacks and quit fooling themselves. Even so, at the end of the year, the likes of Old Navy will still have tons of practically worthless stuff to sell at bargain basement prices in the new year that they paid pennies on the dollar for to manufacture overseas.

Tens of millions of Americans have for years borrowed aggressively against the value of their homes to finance trips to the mall, dinners out, vacations, medical bills and new cars. As housing values continue to fall and artificial financing possibilities wither, the cold reality of real life will finally begin to settle in. Expectations will have to be lowered, at least for now. Wages will have to increase to sustain the economy or prices will have to fall. Since most wages come from the halls of big business, you know that prices will fall.

Confidence is down and for good reason. But confidence is a short-term animal that economists and analysts put too much stock into. Business owners that have some common sense are not stockpiling goods like in days of old. Less stock and less sales mean less tax revenue, which will further hurt the cash that government craves. Confidence will continue to erode for a time and deficit will reign. In six months or more, we may actually know if the stimulus checks were effective in any way or not. Until then, speculation rules. Still, tough times don’t last forever, although getting through is no less difficult. Tough times is also what makes humans grow.

Aside from all the heavy spending, why is America in trouble? Never forget that our friends, the bankers and financiers have dumped the economic cart. Fraud and speculation has worn down the system where a little restraint and sense would have carried the economy a long way. Of course, government guarantees on virtually every financial measure and market don’t work and ultimately create more harm than good by further burdening the economy. We have nationalized banking, mortgage, finance and in some cases, business in general. You can’t take the risk out of business. Human nature mandates abusive practices where there is no risk or reason for accountability.

Happily, we have something to gain from the situation if we are collectively willing to learn from our mistakes and forbid the same behavior in the future. That would be incredible progress that has been slow in coming. Yes, this is a dismal science when times are tough. To some, times are never good enough as we race onward at breakneck speed to meet the rush of bills that are always coming due. That is the life of plenty that America has been sold.

If we are smart, we have other things that we can manage to do during the recovery besides continue to hurt others and the already ailing economy. Sitting still and taking stock may be the wisest move imaginable. We can trim back spending and expectations while looking for a new approach to life in America. Remembering who you really are is more important than false confidence.

While all of this is happening, the digital economy is really ready to take off in a big way with the next upturn. The powers behind the scenes, including the central bankers aren’t hurting. They continue to make it big during good times and bad. ~ E. Manning

Advertisements

6 Comments

  1. this is one of the best blogs I’ve seen with a healthy dose of truth. tough, yet fair and well balanced.

    Comment by libertyfreak — August 3, 2008 @ 5:39 pm

  2. And because of the economy there are speculation interactive activities. That’s America (in the bad news). They had speculation of spending and expectations of Fraud.

    Comment by Jaylynn Luna — August 3, 2008 @ 11:29 pm

  3. “The powers behind the scenes, including the central bankers aren’t hurting. They continue to make it big during good times and bad.”

    The sad fact is that the general population are ignorant of this. If we as a people were smart we could put them out of business. Unfortunately, the general population is more worried about what the next program is on television more then there are being slaves to the machine.

    Cool blog by the way! :)

    Comment by chetpayne — August 4, 2008 @ 4:56 am

  4. good

    Comment by krishna Raj — August 4, 2008 @ 6:26 am

  5. I like the post but I will also make a general observation about blogs related to the topic you’ve chose to write. All I’ve seen if the passing and proliferation of information that intimidates and scares people, increasing their fear, doubt, and anxiety. I think if bloggers and people alike took a more positive and proactive approach to these situations, we may not be in these situations in the first place. I don’t see what’s so excited about reading information that scares you.

    One this topic, I am specialized and don’t hesitate from telling the truth which is often quite ugly. If that scares the reader, then so be it. Education is about learning and there is plenty to learn about economics and money that isn’t seen. Whether this is positive depends on the view of the reader. Positive and proactive quickly caters to self-serving promotion of one thing or the other. This blog has a moral compass and doesn’t hesitate to use it. ~E.M.

    Comment by Bob jennings — August 4, 2008 @ 10:48 am

  6. 51,000 jobs vanished! Leaving many folks at home wondering how they will produce income for the family. Our business offers a viable way to help, many clients come to us too late, often after they have wasted many valuable dollars with the marketing guru hype of the “get rich quick” or “fast success” coaches.

    The economy is changing, how many of us will be wise enough to change with the times?

    Comment by Jan — August 6, 2008 @ 10:01 am


RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Blog at WordPress.com.