Busted: Bankers and The Global Economy

July 31, 2011

Realities Behind the U.S. Debt Crisis

While incompetent and corrupt politics continues to announce a huge divide between sides, the real truth is that Americans have been deceived. The last election proved how little difference exists between moderates on either side, and that is what politics in the United States plays to. Despite the rhetoric in debt crisis debate, there are few meaningful differences in the plans that are being voted on.

Both bills have been estimated to reduce the national budget deficit by around $900 billion over the next 10 years, which is small change in a nation that is overspending by 50%. $750 billion is linked to actual decisions to cut spending. The remaining savings are another accounting gimmick, a projected reduction in interest payments on the national debt because of the proposed budget cuts. $70 billion of the “huge savings” will be applied to 2012 and 2013. As usual, deciding to do anything meaningful always points off somewhere in the distant future. $70 billion is small potatoes for a large economy that continually overspends by increasing margins.

The real issue resides in the fact that the nation has an unstable fiat currency that has been losing its purchasing power for decades. Today, the well is virtually dry, which could easily result in the collapse of the dollar as international currency. This makes the reality of planning ahead a mere mental exercise instead of meaningful in any way. What is worse is that all this fancy accounting is dependent on an unrealistic gross national product of 4.86%. As a result, this budgeting is an exercise in smoke and mirrors.

If you live in the United States, you’ve probably heard the grim news. National GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 was just revised down yesterday by 81% from 1.91% to 0.36%. Never mind that 1.91% is paltry growth anyway. Second quarter estimates for the nation look even worse as the Federal Reserve prints more fiat dollars than ever before. Printing greenbacks doesn’t create economic growth or employment.

As the Federal Government wriggles in credit agony, the Treasury had $51.6 billion available for discretionary spending. The U.S. Treasury expects to bring in $172.4 billion from August 3rd through August 31st in tax receipts, while being scheduled to pay out $306.7 billion. This means a projected deficit of $134.3 billion. The Federal Government is scheduled to make its interest payment of $30 billion on the national debt on August 15th. They are now on track to spend a record $514.5 billion this year on interest payments alone. The nation faces an increase of the interest rate because of a likelihood of a credit downgrade, which would destroy any deficit reductions proposed by national politicians.

The Treasury has been able to pay bills in recent weeks by using accounting gimmicks, but that has come to an end in a few days. The Federal Government is in a real pickle without more fiat money printed by the Federal Reserve. Prioritizing incoming tax receipts of an expected $174.2 billion is essential, which will include the $30 billion interest payment on August 15th to avoid default.

The immediate obligations to the populace in August are $49.2 billion in Social Security, $50 billion in Medicare and Medicaid, topped by $12.8 billion in unemployment benefits. $23 billion of $49.2 billion in Social Security payments are due to be paid on August 3rd. $59 billion in treasury bills are due on August 4th to pay back investors. This says nothing of $31.7 billion in defense payments to pay soldiers and the like.

As a U.S. debt default and credit shortage looms, investors continue (so far) to invest in Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which would be worthless in the event of a national default. All of this assumes, of course, that they don’t rewrite all the rules because of the need to save the international economy. I’m surprised that they haven’t already taken over the ‘renegade’ credit agencies in the name of national security so that the world can continue to ride the dollar bubble.

After all the politics, interest rates are likely to be propelled rapidly upward, resulting in obvious hyperinflation that cannot be quietly manipulated or explained away. The world is flooded with American greenbacks, thanks in no small part to the uninspired management of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to be the only buyer for U.S. debt. How long will that last as it is?

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July 1, 2011

Recession Warning

Filed under: banking, economy, recession — Tags: , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 11:21 am

economic tsunamiThe Dallas Fed’s latest manufacturing gauge has imploded! It fell to -17.5 from -7.4, the worst reading in 11 months. The New York and Philadelphia indices tanked, and the overall plunge in these up-to-date manufacturing surveys over the past couple of months is one of the worst on record!

The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday …

“The Federal Reserve is just days away from ending one of the major steps to aid the U.S. economy — but the effort has done little to solve the original problem: The government and individuals alike are still heavily in debt.”

The Journal goes on to make the same argument:

“The fundamental problem is that reversing the trend of piling on the debt requires some combination of cutting spending, growing income or the economy, and inflation. But wage growth is stagnant and home prices, which underpin much of the debt problem, are still falling.

“Meanwhile, in a vicious circle, businesses aren’t hiring or investing because they know consumers are tapped out. Banks, for their part, are hoarding cash, being stingy with new loans.

Ben Bernanke admitted in his most recent press conference:

“We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting … Some of the headwinds that have been concerning us, like the weakness in the financial sector, problems in the housing sector, balance sheet and deleveraging issues, may be stronger and more persistent than we thought.”

If you’re counting on the Fed to get things right, good luck! They got the dot-com bubble wrong. They got the housing bubble wrong. Their plan to underwrite an economic recovery has proven to be the wrong medicine for what ails the nation.

June 15, 2011

US economist predicts economic storm in 2013

devalued dollarA “perfect storm” of fiscal woes in the United States, a slowdown in China, the debt crisis in Europe and stagnation in Japan has a decent chance of damaging the global economy by 2013, Roubini told reporters late last week. Even so, he is being quite conservative about it. A 33% chance doesn’t seem like news to me. All this by New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the global economic crisis in 2008.

According to Mr. Roubini, the world economy expansion may slow in the second half of this year as “the deleveraging process continues, fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs.”  To me, this seems obvious. This process is really part of what is already happening. It’s not news. The job market stinks in the U.S. and other modern nations. Money isn’t being made abundantly in the real economy. It’s all on Wall Street and in the investment world, based on heavy borrowing and debt restructuring of nations based on fiat money. Washington has been unwilling to deal with a one-trillion-plus budget deficit and a distinct bond market revolt is in the wings. Investors are waking up to the danger to their investment as US bonds are in danger of becoming junk. This will create higher interest rates and possible hyperinflation, which will remove any possibility of a recovery, even resulting the destruction of the dollar for an international medium of exchange. The bankers aren’t truly bothered by this. Based on inside information, the bankers already have a plan in the wings that I have touched on previously. It’s all about marketing, presentation to them.

Already, we have riots in Greece, as they face the music regarding the bad debt that the nation and bankers have created. They claim that officials need to restructure the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Waiting too long will ultimately result in the disintegration of the euro zone stability, experts say. Roubini agrees. The ridiculous aspect to the entire scenario is that all banking debt in the current system that is created will never be paid back. Further, much of this debt has been cleverly folded into Wall Street investments with the idea of making money, either through long or short selling. But this does not solve the problem of any debt unless the nations involved have the ability to make money by having control. They don’t. Only the bankers make money on any debt. In the meantime, these nations are paying on interest, not on principal. It’s stupid. The spiral never ends. Roubini and most economists remain silent on this aspect of the system.

Many other analysts, like myself,  have repeatedly warned of a “possible” repeat of the 2008 global economic meltdown in the immediate future. Others, like Moscow financial expert Alexander Osin expresses hope that the international community will be able to find the way out. Russian economist Konstantin Sonin  warns against overdramatizing the situation since people like Roubini are full of it, false prophets, in essence. The solution?

“The world economy faced such a problem in the 1930s,” Osin says, adding that Adolf Hitler’s ascent to power and the beginning of World War Two helped to resolve the problem. “At present, it should be solved by peaceful means, which the global community is almost certain to find.” Certainly, the Russians and Arabs are doing quite well since they are sitting on oil profits. That will only last as long as the current monetary gaming system does. That is the problem behind the whole matter. An eternal debt-based banking system destroys the nations that depend on it unless they are sitting on huge cash cow. Rest assured, that is temporary. If they are doing business with the bankers, the banking system will drain that wealth too. That is the nature of the system in place, as well as the nature of the future system.

So, to solve the problem we need a global war and preferably another Hitler. In the meantime, resolving the monetary system crisis is all about “hope,” and now we are listening to Russians for economic advice. The global economy really is in trouble. There won’t be any gain without plenty of pain. Never mind the pain that so many are in now.

E. Manning

May 28, 2011

Goldman Sachs Continues to Take Down Nations

Filed under: banking, corporatism, economy, government, recession, video — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 9:39 am

May 2, 2011

China Considering Dumping US Investments

The U.S. dollar continues to slide in value as out of control spending continues. China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, is considering dumping two-thirds the dollar reserves that it holds, to the tune of about $3.04 trillion.

According to a report from China’s Xinhua news agency, a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee is recommending that Beijing reinvest its foreign exchange reserves. Other Chinese financial authorities confided at a forum in Beijing that China’s current U.S. holdings are too high. The governor of China’s central bank has said that China’s foreign exchange reserves are excessive and that Beijing should begin to diversity its vast pool of dollars.

While American corporations have led the world in economic growth for more than a century, China’s government has had enough business sense to become the world’s second largest economic power. China is on target to overtake the U.S. economy.

Central bankers and many investors want to unplug the dollar as the international mainstay of finance. China wants its currency to play a more dominant role in the global economy, dumping the dollar (treasuries) as a viable investment, since the Federal Reserve is addicted to printing money, which further devalues the dollar to keep the current global money scene afloat.

April 1, 2011

U.S. Budget Madness Ensues

Filed under: economy, government, invest, money — Tags: , , , — digitaleconomy @ 7:37 am

fiddling as the nation burnsThe U.S. Treasury has released a final statement for the month of March that demonstrates that financial madness has gripped the federal government.

During the month, according to the Treasury, the federal government grossed $194 billion in tax revenue and paid out $65.898 billion in tax refunds netting $128.179 billion in tax revenue for March.

At the same, the Treasury paid out a total of $1.1187 trillion. When the $65.898 billion in tax refunds is deducted from that, the Treasury paid a net of $1.0528 trillion in federal expenses for March.

That $1.0528 trillion in spending for March equaled 8.2 times the $128.179 in net federal tax revenue for the month.

February 4, 2011

Bernanke: Catastrophic Implications for U.S. Economy

Filed under: banking, business, corporatism, economy, federal reserve, government, money, recession — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 6:09 am

 

USA facing debt crisis

Ben Bernanke of U.S. Federal Reserve has warned that the failure to promptly raise the national debt ceiling would catastrophic.  This catastrophe would clearly have a negative impact on paper assets denominated in dollars and other fiat currencies.

Bernanke was blunt about the threats by some congressional Republicans to use the upcoming debt-ceiling vote as sledgehammer to force harsh spending cuts:

“I would very much urge Congress not to focus on the debt limit as being the bargaining chip in this discussion, but rather to address directly the spending and tax issues that we have to deal with in order to make progress on this fiscal situation,”

“Beyond a certain point … the United States would be forced into a position of defaulting on its debt. And the implications of that on our financial system, our fiscal policy and our economy would be catastrophic.”

It’s important to realize that Bernanke did not use his typical conservative language regarding the necessity of addressing U.S. fiscal challenges. To the contrary, he painted a bleak picture of the possible consequences of failing to act:

“… if government debt and deficits were actually to grow at the pace envisioned, the economic and financial effects would be severe. Sustained high rates of government borrowing would both drain funds away from private investment and increase our debt to foreigners, with adverse long-run effects on U.S. output, incomes, and standards of living. Moreover, diminishing investor confidence that deficits will be brought under control would ultimately lead to sharply rising interest rates on government debt and, potentially, to broader financial turmoil. In a vicious circle, high and rising interest rates would cause debt-service payments on the federal debt to grow even faster, causing further increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio and making fiscal adjustment all the more difficult.”

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