Busted: Bankers and The Global Economy

July 31, 2011

Realities Behind the U.S. Debt Crisis

While incompetent and corrupt politics continues to announce a huge divide between sides, the real truth is that Americans have been deceived. The last election proved how little difference exists between moderates on either side, and that is what politics in the United States plays to. Despite the rhetoric in debt crisis debate, there are few meaningful differences in the plans that are being voted on.

Both bills have been estimated to reduce the national budget deficit by around $900 billion over the next 10 years, which is small change in a nation that is overspending by 50%. $750 billion is linked to actual decisions to cut spending. The remaining savings are another accounting gimmick, a projected reduction in interest payments on the national debt because of the proposed budget cuts. $70 billion of the “huge savings” will be applied to 2012 and 2013. As usual, deciding to do anything meaningful always points off somewhere in the distant future. $70 billion is small potatoes for a large economy that continually overspends by increasing margins.

The real issue resides in the fact that the nation has an unstable fiat currency that has been losing its purchasing power for decades. Today, the well is virtually dry, which could easily result in the collapse of the dollar as international currency. This makes the reality of planning ahead a mere mental exercise instead of meaningful in any way. What is worse is that all this fancy accounting is dependent on an unrealistic gross national product of 4.86%. As a result, this budgeting is an exercise in smoke and mirrors.

If you live in the United States, you’ve probably heard the grim news. National GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 was just revised down yesterday by 81% from 1.91% to 0.36%. Never mind that 1.91% is paltry growth anyway. Second quarter estimates for the nation look even worse as the Federal Reserve prints more fiat dollars than ever before. Printing greenbacks doesn’t create economic growth or employment.

As the Federal Government wriggles in credit agony, the Treasury had $51.6 billion available for discretionary spending. The U.S. Treasury expects to bring in $172.4 billion from August 3rd through August 31st in tax receipts, while being scheduled to pay out $306.7 billion. This means a projected deficit of $134.3 billion. The Federal Government is scheduled to make its interest payment of $30 billion on the national debt on August 15th. They are now on track to spend a record $514.5 billion this year on interest payments alone. The nation faces an increase of the interest rate because of a likelihood of a credit downgrade, which would destroy any deficit reductions proposed by national politicians.

The Treasury has been able to pay bills in recent weeks by using accounting gimmicks, but that has come to an end in a few days. The Federal Government is in a real pickle without more fiat money printed by the Federal Reserve. Prioritizing incoming tax receipts of an expected $174.2 billion is essential, which will include the $30 billion interest payment on August 15th to avoid default.

The immediate obligations to the populace in August are $49.2 billion in Social Security, $50 billion in Medicare and Medicaid, topped by $12.8 billion in unemployment benefits. $23 billion of $49.2 billion in Social Security payments are due to be paid on August 3rd. $59 billion in treasury bills are due on August 4th to pay back investors. This says nothing of $31.7 billion in defense payments to pay soldiers and the like.

As a U.S. debt default and credit shortage looms, investors continue (so far) to invest in Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which would be worthless in the event of a national default. All of this assumes, of course, that they don’t rewrite all the rules because of the need to save the international economy. I’m surprised that they haven’t already taken over the ‘renegade’ credit agencies in the name of national security so that the world can continue to ride the dollar bubble.

After all the politics, interest rates are likely to be propelled rapidly upward, resulting in obvious hyperinflation that cannot be quietly manipulated or explained away. The world is flooded with American greenbacks, thanks in no small part to the uninspired management of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to be the only buyer for U.S. debt. How long will that last as it is?

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June 15, 2011

US economist predicts economic storm in 2013

devalued dollarA “perfect storm” of fiscal woes in the United States, a slowdown in China, the debt crisis in Europe and stagnation in Japan has a decent chance of damaging the global economy by 2013, Roubini told reporters late last week. Even so, he is being quite conservative about it. A 33% chance doesn’t seem like news to me. All this by New York University professor Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the global economic crisis in 2008.

According to Mr. Roubini, the world economy expansion may slow in the second half of this year as “the deleveraging process continues, fiscal stimulus is withdrawn and confidence ebbs.”  To me, this seems obvious. This process is really part of what is already happening. It’s not news. The job market stinks in the U.S. and other modern nations. Money isn’t being made abundantly in the real economy. It’s all on Wall Street and in the investment world, based on heavy borrowing and debt restructuring of nations based on fiat money. Washington has been unwilling to deal with a one-trillion-plus budget deficit and a distinct bond market revolt is in the wings. Investors are waking up to the danger to their investment as US bonds are in danger of becoming junk. This will create higher interest rates and possible hyperinflation, which will remove any possibility of a recovery, even resulting the destruction of the dollar for an international medium of exchange. The bankers aren’t truly bothered by this. Based on inside information, the bankers already have a plan in the wings that I have touched on previously. It’s all about marketing, presentation to them.

Already, we have riots in Greece, as they face the music regarding the bad debt that the nation and bankers have created. They claim that officials need to restructure the debt of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Waiting too long will ultimately result in the disintegration of the euro zone stability, experts say. Roubini agrees. The ridiculous aspect to the entire scenario is that all banking debt in the current system that is created will never be paid back. Further, much of this debt has been cleverly folded into Wall Street investments with the idea of making money, either through long or short selling. But this does not solve the problem of any debt unless the nations involved have the ability to make money by having control. They don’t. Only the bankers make money on any debt. In the meantime, these nations are paying on interest, not on principal. It’s stupid. The spiral never ends. Roubini and most economists remain silent on this aspect of the system.

Many other analysts, like myself,  have repeatedly warned of a “possible” repeat of the 2008 global economic meltdown in the immediate future. Others, like Moscow financial expert Alexander Osin expresses hope that the international community will be able to find the way out. Russian economist Konstantin Sonin  warns against overdramatizing the situation since people like Roubini are full of it, false prophets, in essence. The solution?

“The world economy faced such a problem in the 1930s,” Osin says, adding that Adolf Hitler’s ascent to power and the beginning of World War Two helped to resolve the problem. “At present, it should be solved by peaceful means, which the global community is almost certain to find.” Certainly, the Russians and Arabs are doing quite well since they are sitting on oil profits. That will only last as long as the current monetary gaming system does. That is the problem behind the whole matter. An eternal debt-based banking system destroys the nations that depend on it unless they are sitting on huge cash cow. Rest assured, that is temporary. If they are doing business with the bankers, the banking system will drain that wealth too. That is the nature of the system in place, as well as the nature of the future system.

So, to solve the problem we need a global war and preferably another Hitler. In the meantime, resolving the monetary system crisis is all about “hope,” and now we are listening to Russians for economic advice. The global economy really is in trouble. There won’t be any gain without plenty of pain. Never mind the pain that so many are in now.

E. Manning

May 2, 2011

China Considering Dumping US Investments

The U.S. dollar continues to slide in value as out of control spending continues. China, the largest holder of U.S. debt, is considering dumping two-thirds the dollar reserves that it holds, to the tune of about $3.04 trillion.

According to a report from China’s Xinhua news agency, a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee is recommending that Beijing reinvest its foreign exchange reserves. Other Chinese financial authorities confided at a forum in Beijing that China’s current U.S. holdings are too high. The governor of China’s central bank has said that China’s foreign exchange reserves are excessive and that Beijing should begin to diversity its vast pool of dollars.

While American corporations have led the world in economic growth for more than a century, China’s government has had enough business sense to become the world’s second largest economic power. China is on target to overtake the U.S. economy.

Central bankers and many investors want to unplug the dollar as the international mainstay of finance. China wants its currency to play a more dominant role in the global economy, dumping the dollar (treasuries) as a viable investment, since the Federal Reserve is addicted to printing money, which further devalues the dollar to keep the current global money scene afloat.

December 27, 2010

Hyperinflation Projected by 2015

Filed under: banking, business, central bank, corporatism, economy, inflation — Tags: , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 2:18 am

October 15, 2010

US Inflation Not High Enough Says Bernanke

Wages are stalled, job numbers are anemic, prices are up and social security payments are frozen. The Fed’s policymaking committee “is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation over time to levels consistent with our mandate.” Apparently, action is needed, even though Bernanke is speaking in yesterday’s terms.

According to Bernanke, current inflation numbers are well below the Fed’s objective of 2%. He is worried about deflation caused by printing dollars. Now the Fed will print more dollars and buy securities on the back end in a sort of mock economic transaction. Inflation and Fed profits are the main concern. Inflation allows central bankers to take an additional cut of economic life blood for their services.  In the past, Bernanke has tried upselling to Wall Street. Today, many news articles are claiming that the Fed plans to tame inflation.  He expects to create inflation, but does the Fed have the control it needs to regulate that inflation?  Bernanke thinks so. Bernanke claims to believe that the Fed’s intervention will stimulate the economy, reduce unemployment and prevent deflation. Clearly, the Fed thinks they are large and in charge. This comment and others were made to show intent about “avoiding a double-dip recession.”

Chairman Ben Bernanke said this morning that the Federal Reserve is prepared to take new action to boost the economy.  Inflation has been too low of late and unemployment is poised to come down too slowly. They intend to create inflation. Are you ready for the fallout?

Meanwhile in the United Kingdom, Justice Minister Ken Clarke warned that world is “in grave danger of financial collapse.” He warned that western nations are “not out of the woods yet”…”We have rescued ourselves for the moment from being bracketed with the weaker brethren with doubts about our credit rating and the costs of our borrowing, but if we fail to deliver the kind of program we have set out we will be back there all too soon if we are not too careful.”  Clarke’s comments come only six days before the coalition government’s massive spending cuts are announced. The U.K. government argues that the cuts are necessary to restore the economy to health. Opponents claim they will push the U.K. into a double-dip recession.

 

October 12, 2010

U.S. on the Way to the Third World?

Everyone is talking about unemployment, but nobody is talking about the long-term reality of the U.S. economy. Wall Street is playing investment games with agricultural commodities to make money, which is now impacting prices apart from traditional supply and demand. This translates to higher prices despite a poverty-stricken economy. Food processors and manufacturers are cutting products sizes and raising prices, which means that Americans continue to get the short shrift on all sides.

Then there are the jobs. This month the U-6 category from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (a measure of unemployment that includes those who have stopped looking for work)  jumped to 17.1%, yet another red flag.

Also, consider the U.S. trade deficit that sends billions of dollars overseas to foreign countries, never to return, evaporating into the global economy. The deficit means that the Fed will print more money to add to an already robust global dollar supply.

The nation has another banking crisis, where it has been revealed that fraudulent foreclosure documents were signed without evaluation. This could plunge both the the mortgage industry and the banking industry into another “too big to fail” bailout. Who are we kidding? Messy lawsuits could be the order of the day as buyers and investors seek redress for damages, either real or imaginary. All this financial pressure will undoubtedly influence exporting more jobs outside of America to cut corporate costs. That is why you are hearing all the media hype about Americans not being trained enough for sophisticated jobs that they no longer qualify for. They are preparing you for the ugly truth, even if the reasons are really fiction.

Many Americans struggle to pay for necessities now as those prices continue to rise. Food basics are once again on the rise. Food processors are likely to pass that on American consumers. To counter all the bad news, the Fed is considering creating inflation with the hope of boosting the economy. Printing more dollars to send overseas is hardly a solution. Printing dollars to keep those dollars here is the only viable solution, but hardly an option since most corporate shareholders only care about the bottom line as they send the bulk of their work to cheaper labor markets. Whether that bottom line rests on foreign factories or in American ones doesn’t matter to them.

This short-sided thinking is unsustainable at best, even as corporations seek government funding because they are unwilling to take risks in the U.S. marketplace. They seek that money only because the U.S. government is stupid enough to offer incentives to those that don’t really need the cash. It just pads the bottom line for larger corporations, as that money evaporates forever with little reward for Americans. Meanwhile, the media continues to boast that small business is responsible for a robust economy, even as the U.S. government penalizes small business. Enjoy the new American third world and the decline of the nation in favor of funding multinational corporations.

August 16, 2010

The Disingenuous Timothy Geithner

On a very regular basis, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner engages in magical thinking with deliberate attempts to delude American workers into believing that business investment and consumer demand are on the uptick. Geithner’s pretense isn’t only disingenuous and disrespectful, but dangerous. How? He continually suggests  that American consumers should feel comfortable borrowing and spending in the vain hope of spurring any hope of economic bright light.

Mr. Geithner needs to stop with the tim-foolery as these truths hang over our nation like a plague:

  • The real unemployment rate is 18.3%, instead of the 9.5% rate the administration uses.
  • The number of real unemployed workers in all four categories of unemployment is no less than 29.3 million, instead of the administration’s one-category-only figure of 14.6 million.
  • In real terms the all-important “jobs gap” is 21.3 million new jobs.
  • Since the start of the Obama administration, the number of real unemployed workers has increased by 4.6 million. The U.S. economy needs to add 150,000 new jobs each month simply to keep up with “population growth.”
  • For unemployment benefits, the average number of weeks unemployed is at least 34 and the number of workers unemployed a half year or longer is at least 10.1 million.
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