And now the rest of the story. The U.S. Senate and House have approved and passed the latest U.S. bailout miracle. How will the nation benefit? The rest of the story is there will be very little difference except that the current power structure will remain in place. That, America is exactly what all the hubbub at the top of the U.S. government is all about. The long-term details are of little importance to politicians, bankers and especially not to the central bankers.
Within a month or two, Hank Paulson will buy $250 billion in junk assets using mainly guesswork since there is little transparency in evaluating the quality of what he is buying. Because of the false pride in U.S. government and under the pretense of fairness (can you believe that?), Paulson and his buddies will spend more than market value, even though the junk value is pretty much zero. If the nation is smart, they will elect a president that will promptly dump Henry Paulson onto the job market heap of life. He will spend up that precious $700 billion in credit before he leaves office. If by some miracle Paulson retains his job, he will come with his hand out to Congress for another hefty chunk with little to show for his efforts.
Confidence will improve modestly, mostly due to investment from global central banks as they need somewhere to invest all that devalued cash. Other foreign investors will watch cautiously, but begin to bet on safer risks for the short-haul. Banks will continue to stand on capital and credit markets will stay tight. The economy will continue to shrink and the market liquidity will continue to logjam.
Joe Citizen will continue to cut back because of inflationary pressures and shrinking income. Credit costs will rise and the cost of capital goods will stall. Pressures on foreign markets will continue to put the squeeze on the business world, especially big business and multinationals. Generally, the poor will get poorer and poverty will spike across the globe.
The global economy will continue to weaken focusing initially in Europe, followed by Asia and the emerging markets that business has come to rely on. This is in process now.
Hopes for a speedy recovery by politicians and lapdog economists will wane as the seeds of what Washington has sown come to full fruit. The unpleasant combination of high inflation and economic stagnation will come to bear on the land of the free, followed by the Europe and the rest of the world.
Continued meddling by the U.S. government, foreign governments and central bankers will continue to reinforce inflation. This meddling, like the bailout before it, will merely prolong the economic pain instead allowing the cycle to work naturally. Economic suffering will be great.
The U.S. government will vainly attempt a fiscal stimulus for taxpayers for give a shot in the arm to the economy. An expansion of the bailout will be too little, too late and with little understanding of the real issues because of a lack of understanding of the real issues. Economic recovery is a long-term prognosis.
The United States will be tempted to default on the national debt. Politicians won’t need to worry much. Central bankers have what they want: control of governments and populations, the economic gross national product to fund their quiet rush to superpower status and a new global currency built under the guise of peace and security. It is a dark scenario that must be walked through except for those central bankers that control the gold.~ E. Manning