Busted: Bankers and The Global Economy

September 16, 2009

Double Dip Recession or Recovery?

Filed under: corporatism, credit, economy — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 7:55 am

Global industrial production now shows clear signs of recovering at least when comparing the current ‘recession’ with the Great Depression. During that time, a decline in industrial production continued for a full three years. The question remains regarding final demand for this increased production. Will renewed demand actually materialize or did the U.S. government create a small bubble with $2 billion “Cash for Clunkers” program? Will consumer spending, especially in the US, remain weak, causing the increase in production to go into inventories? If production simply falls into inventories, this will result in sharp cut backs and result in a return to recession. The labor market combined with ailing business credit and finance in the U.S. does not hold out much promise for an end to the recession. Will the Obama administration jigger with credit markets to somehow expand credit markets?

Global stock markets and investment banking and profiteering have mounted a sharp recovery since the beginning of the year. Still, the decline in stock market wealth remains even greater than at a comparable stage of the Great Depression. The downward spiral in global trade volumes has abated. This may be due to the return of the old ways of doing business that President Obama has decried publicly in the last few days. Data exists for June that shows a modest uptick in trade, but  the collapse of global trade remains dramatic by the standards of the Great Depression.

November 4, 2008

Bad Economic News on Election Night

Filed under: economy, money, politics — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 4:13 pm

The Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York doesn’t have good economic news, but are sharing that news before U.S. elections close this evening. A fairly strong industrial sector, propelled by a formerly cheap dollar and strong economies overseas, helped to keep the U.S. recession mild. According to the experts that compile the Journal of Commerce data, that situation has collapsed with the likelihood for a more severe and protracted recession in the United States. The data indicates a recession on at least the same scale as when Ronald Reagan took office back in 1980. Indications are that the current recession will be much worse.

The sharp decline in commodities such as oil and metals are a trouble sign rather than a positive one. Some say this is caused by hedge fund investments being dumped on the open market. Who care? This is part of the cycle. Investments in commodities are no longer in vogue because of downward trends.

Coupled with sales declines and corporate stalls in around the globe, predicting a global recession is “tricky” according to some experts. This expert votes that we get the bad news out of the way so that we can focus on better news down the road instead of debating the obvious. We need to consider the process of rebuilding. Obviously, this is not immediate. However, the sooner stronger minds prevail, the sooner the nation can start to see a notable improvement of business prospects, perhaps as early as the summer of 2010. What the U.S. government and world leaders do in the meantime will dictate the speed and breadth of any improvement. Government policy can also spur new growth, especially in the small business sector. Let’s get crackin’. Real people are doing too much suffering already. ~ E. Manning

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