Busted: Bankers and The Global Economy

July 31, 2011

Realities Behind the U.S. Debt Crisis

While incompetent and corrupt politics continues to announce a huge divide between sides, the real truth is that Americans have been deceived. The last election proved how little difference exists between moderates on either side, and that is what politics in the United States plays to. Despite the rhetoric in debt crisis debate, there are few meaningful differences in the plans that are being voted on.

Both bills have been estimated to reduce the national budget deficit by around $900 billion over the next 10 years, which is small change in a nation that is overspending by 50%. $750 billion is linked to actual decisions to cut spending. The remaining savings are another accounting gimmick, a projected reduction in interest payments on the national debt because of the proposed budget cuts. $70 billion of the “huge savings” will be applied to 2012 and 2013. As usual, deciding to do anything meaningful always points off somewhere in the distant future. $70 billion is small potatoes for a large economy that continually overspends by increasing margins.

The real issue resides in the fact that the nation has an unstable fiat currency that has been losing its purchasing power for decades. Today, the well is virtually dry, which could easily result in the collapse of the dollar as international currency. This makes the reality of planning ahead a mere mental exercise instead of meaningful in any way. What is worse is that all this fancy accounting is dependent on an unrealistic gross national product of 4.86%. As a result, this budgeting is an exercise in smoke and mirrors.

If you live in the United States, you’ve probably heard the grim news. National GDP growth for the first quarter of 2011 was just revised down yesterday by 81% from 1.91% to 0.36%. Never mind that 1.91% is paltry growth anyway. Second quarter estimates for the nation look even worse as the Federal Reserve prints more fiat dollars than ever before. Printing greenbacks doesn’t create economic growth or employment.

As the Federal Government wriggles in credit agony, the Treasury had $51.6 billion available for discretionary spending. The U.S. Treasury expects to bring in $172.4 billion from August 3rd through August 31st in tax receipts, while being scheduled to pay out $306.7 billion. This means a projected deficit of $134.3 billion. The Federal Government is scheduled to make its interest payment of $30 billion on the national debt on August 15th. They are now on track to spend a record $514.5 billion this year on interest payments alone. The nation faces an increase of the interest rate because of a likelihood of a credit downgrade, which would destroy any deficit reductions proposed by national politicians.

The Treasury has been able to pay bills in recent weeks by using accounting gimmicks, but that has come to an end in a few days. The Federal Government is in a real pickle without more fiat money printed by the Federal Reserve. Prioritizing incoming tax receipts of an expected $174.2 billion is essential, which will include the $30 billion interest payment on August 15th to avoid default.

The immediate obligations to the populace in August are $49.2 billion in Social Security, $50 billion in Medicare and Medicaid, topped by $12.8 billion in unemployment benefits. $23 billion of $49.2 billion in Social Security payments are due to be paid on August 3rd. $59 billion in treasury bills are due on August 4th to pay back investors. This says nothing of $31.7 billion in defense payments to pay soldiers and the like.

As a U.S. debt default and credit shortage looms, investors continue (so far) to invest in Treasury Bonds as a safe haven, which would be worthless in the event of a national default. All of this assumes, of course, that they don’t rewrite all the rules because of the need to save the international economy. I’m surprised that they haven’t already taken over the ‘renegade’ credit agencies in the name of national security so that the world can continue to ride the dollar bubble.

After all the politics, interest rates are likely to be propelled rapidly upward, resulting in obvious hyperinflation that cannot be quietly manipulated or explained away. The world is flooded with American greenbacks, thanks in no small part to the uninspired management of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to be the only buyer for U.S. debt. How long will that last as it is?

April 3, 2011

The World’s Greatest Ponzi Scheme

Filed under: central bank, credit, economy, government, inflation, money, recession — Tags: , , , , , , , — digitaleconomy @ 9:11 pm

house of cardsIn the month of March, the U.S. government spent more than eight times its monthly tax receipts, including money spent for maturing U.S. treasuries.

The U.S. treasury cleared $128.18 billion in tax receipts during the month of March, but paid out a total of $1.05 trillion, which included $49.8 billion in Social Security benefits, $47.4 billion in Medicare benefits, $22.58 billion in Medicaid benefits and $37.9 billion in defense spending. The real financial beating springs from maturing U.S. treasuries where the U.S. paid out $705.3 billion.

In order for the U.S. government to stay afloat with only $128.18 billion in tax receipts, it had to spend $72.5 billion from the balance of cash on hand. This closed the month at $118.1 billion, including the sales of $18 billion worth of TARP assets. Most importantly, the U.S. treasury had to sell $786.5 billion in new treasury bonds, which it will be required to mature at a still higher in the future in order to keep the shirt of its’ back. Surely this is the greatest Ponzi scheme ever executed on the world as the government endlessly seeks to outrun the debt that it creates. The nation is able to fund government expenditures and pay off maturing debt instruments by issuing new and larger amounts of debt. Up to now the Federal Reserve interest has made this debacle survivable.

At this time the interest payments on the United States national debt is the government’s largest monthly expenditure. The world is waking up to the fact that the U.S. government is truly insolvent and that the benefits of propping up the U.S. dollar will no longer be worth the expense to foreign creditors. The U.S. government Ponzi scheme is being exposed for the world to see.

China is becoming more reluctant to continue buying U.S. treasuries as it positions the yuan to be the world’s new reserve currency. Japan needs to raise $300 billion to rebuild parts of their country that were destroyed by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster. They will be unable to invest handily in the U.S. or may opt to invest outright in China as money is available. The U.S. desperately needs Japan and the Arab world to roll over national treasuries into larger amounts of new ones. With Arab revolutions taking place across major Saudi states and the U.S. occupying Libya for no good reason at all, the nation is likely see a global disdain for its previously valued treasures that it must sell to cope with the runaway spending and deficits of Congress.

April 1, 2011

U.S. Budget Madness Ensues

Filed under: economy, government, invest, money — Tags: , , , — digitaleconomy @ 7:37 am

fiddling as the nation burnsThe U.S. Treasury has released a final statement for the month of March that demonstrates that financial madness has gripped the federal government.

During the month, according to the Treasury, the federal government grossed $194 billion in tax revenue and paid out $65.898 billion in tax refunds netting $128.179 billion in tax revenue for March.

At the same, the Treasury paid out a total of $1.1187 trillion. When the $65.898 billion in tax refunds is deducted from that, the Treasury paid a net of $1.0528 trillion in federal expenses for March.

That $1.0528 trillion in spending for March equaled 8.2 times the $128.179 in net federal tax revenue for the month.

December 31, 2010

2011: A New Year for Dogs & Ponies

It’s been a great year if you haven’t looked much at the world around you, but there is always potential, especially for Wall Street leveraging and central bankers. Since I’ve retired in earnest, I sometimes shut off the news because I’d rather think about something else. Perhaps you’ve been doing this too. If so, you may not for much longer. Scuttlebutt at the G20 has it that the dollar won’t be the darling of the world much longer. So what, you say! That kind of talk has been going on for years. Apparently, the G20 finance ministers have decided that on May 4, 2011 that the dollar will no longer be the “world reserve currency.” So what you say? Even if you don’t believe it, the scenario is rather entertaining, i.e., would make a great movie. It’s a real dog and pony show.

Even now silver and gold paper is highly leveraged, much like the dollar is with the fractional reserve. There is so much leveraged paper out there that the system in place is likely to implode from the panic. There isn’t enough silver and gold bullion in the marketplace, or rather, in the storehouses. This is already heating up into a potential crisis, a run on the bank, as it were. Won’t that make gold and silver more valuable? Only if you have your gold or silver in real gold or silver. In that case, you won’t have worthless paper securities, but a real danger of having your life taken from you if anyone knows you have it. Because of this, you won’t be able to spend it either, because if you did, somebody would know you had it.

As I said, the demand for the real gold and silver will be terrific as the former world reserve currency plunges into oblivion. Either singular scenario means hyperinflation. With OPEC oil being the USA major import, the nation will shut down from lack of fuel or rather, the ability to buy it. The nation has an oil reserve, but that won’t last long the way America consumes it. Too bad we can’t leverage the oil reserve to pretend there’s more. I’m not finished yet.

The Fed has initiated Quantitative Easing (known as QE2) that spells an end to the Bretton Woods accord with the idea of replacing it with a different system. Trading partners are nervous, but they aren’t the only ones. For now, export-dependent nations recycle capital to USA markets in order to sustain demand. The Federal Reserve decided that the only way to fight deflation and high unemployment in the USA was by weakening the dollar to make USA exports more competitive. That means that the USA will be battling for the same export market as the rest of the world, which will shrink global demand for goods and services. Never mind that China’s decision to back off on the dollar would be enough to cause a dollar crisis. Never mind that the multinationals will hate this as profits plunge. Government officials will wet their pants in panic. Number of jobless Americans will go through the roof, if we had one. Wal-Mart, so dependent on China exports will close. Inventories will be short. National GDPs will shrink. Economies will contract. Ooh. It’s not pretty.

Paul Volcker recently opined: “The growing sense around much of the world is that we have lost both relative economic strength and more important, we have lost a coherent successful governing model to be emulated by the rest of the world. Instead, we’re faced with broken financial markets, underperformance of our economy and a fractious political climate…” Everyone has rode the pony too hard. Now the powers that be are preparing to run the show in a way that is untested. We aren’t sure whether the dogs can carry the weight. All those “risk-free” treasury bonds are in real danger. The whole system is bankrupt. The USA stands to lose all its status. Central bankers know this, but they already hold all the valuables, and the means for a new system.

The world doesn’t care about the USA deficit, as long as it’s used to bail out the world in some sense. 100 major cities are facing bankruptcy this year unless they get a federal bailout. Even though Great Britain opted for austerity measures, the USA doesn’t really have this for a choice because they hold the debt bag for the global standard. Central bankers have the valuables and the credit to prolong the current system as they please or not. Meanwhile, Main Street and the population is more tightly squeezed than ever. Those trained dogs are walking a tightrope, but for how long? President Obama needs to hold everything together with a grand distraction so that he will be handily re-elected. What do you think that will be? It’s sure to be glorious.

In the meantime, go ahead and shut off your TV until something better comes along. Have a party while you can. You might not have long to wait.

November 5, 2010

USA Economy: Bernanke Gets ‘Creative’

The Federal Reserve has been mandated by Congress to reduce unemployment while holding their interest rate near zero.  They plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities to keep prices from falling and reduce further the long-term borrowing costs, even as 8,000 commercial banks are being locked out of the money flow that could be used to begin financial healing on Main Street.

Bernanke plans to use the tools created during the recession to pump life into the USA economy. They have been projecting that the USA economy has been expanding for 15 months, but not to their satisfaction. They want the USA economy to grow at a larger rate. The reaction of the market has caused the dollar to fall and stocks to rise, as if Wall Street is a true measure of the USA economy. The focus is on Wall Street. Main Street be damned.

Bernanke hopes that he can encourage Wall Street investors to take more risks without risking inflation or encouraging price bubbles of assets by pushing the unemployment rate, which has been above 9 percent since June 2009.

Allen Sinai, the chief global economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York claims that the Federal Reserve is not working up to standard. He criticized that they are paid to do the job more effectively, but their work is not up to standard. The fact remains that no human institution is truly equipped to deal with the crisis. We are in new economic territory with a global currency at stake, currently propped up by Wall Street as a distraction from the truth.

To push the rate of unemployment down, the central bank wants to spur the rate of US economic growth above a 2.5 annual growth rate.

August 16, 2010

The Disingenuous Timothy Geithner

On a very regular basis, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner engages in magical thinking with deliberate attempts to delude American workers into believing that business investment and consumer demand are on the uptick. Geithner’s pretense isn’t only disingenuous and disrespectful, but dangerous. How? He continually suggests  that American consumers should feel comfortable borrowing and spending in the vain hope of spurring any hope of economic bright light.

Mr. Geithner needs to stop with the tim-foolery as these truths hang over our nation like a plague:

  • The real unemployment rate is 18.3%, instead of the 9.5% rate the administration uses.
  • The number of real unemployed workers in all four categories of unemployment is no less than 29.3 million, instead of the administration’s one-category-only figure of 14.6 million.
  • In real terms the all-important “jobs gap” is 21.3 million new jobs.
  • Since the start of the Obama administration, the number of real unemployed workers has increased by 4.6 million. The U.S. economy needs to add 150,000 new jobs each month simply to keep up with “population growth.”
  • For unemployment benefits, the average number of weeks unemployed is at least 34 and the number of workers unemployed a half year or longer is at least 10.1 million.

April 14, 2009

Bernanke: It’s All About the System

monopoly moneyPresident Obama declares that the sun is coming out as the economic storm wanes. “The financial and economic risks posed by a collapse of AIG would have been at least as great as those created by the demise of Lehman. In the case of AIG, financial market participants were keenly aware that many major financial institutions around the world were insured by or had lent funds to the company. The company’s failure would thus likely have led to a further sharp decline in confidence in the global banking system and possibly to the collapse of other major financial institutions. At best, the consequences of AIG’s failure would have been a significant intensification of an already severe financial crisis and a further worsening of economic conditions. Conceivably, its failure could have triggered a 1930s-style global financial and economic meltdown, with catastrophic implications for production, incomes, and jobs. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury agreed that in the environment then prevailing, AIG’s failure would have posed unacceptable risks for the global financial system and for our economy.” – Ben Bernanke in speech to Morehouse College

Magic Money T-ShirtThe American taxpayers have been put on the hook to bail out Wall Street.  Success is still not guaranteed despite a recently sunny disposition. Meanwhile the European Union supports a new monetary system and retirement of the dollar as the prop of the global community that central bankers have long proffered. The general undercurrent in much of the EU underwrites “the collapse of the Bretton Woods system based on the US Dollar as sole pillar of the global monetary system.” This was predicted by some parties in the EU last year, but so far has not come to pass because of the creativity and financial manipulation of the International Society of Central Bankers.

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